Over the years, the Netherlands has produced a list of centre forwards so good that you have to double-check that you’ve read it properly. Think Robin van Persie, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Patrick Kluivert, Dennis Bergkamp and Marco van Basten, to name but a few. Yet that is the past and the present is looking somewhat different. 

It’s the 2023 UEFA Nations League semi-final between the Netherlands and Croatia. The game is already a huge one for Ronald Koeman. Not just due to the limited big matches before Euro 2024 but because his second stint in charge of the Oranje has gotten off to a horrid start. He’s under scrutiny following a 4-0 thrashing by France and an unsatisfying win against Gibraltar that gradually sucked the colourful optimism from the orange masses in De Kuip. It’s the 64th minute and Koeman, seeing the experienced Croats tightening their grip on a game locked at 1-1, makes an attacking change to try to enable his side to wriggle free. 

And the main option on the bench at this vital moment? Wout Weghorst. The same Weghorst who scored 4 goals in 51 appearances during recent spells with Burnley and Manchester United. For all his endearing hard work and the magical moment he provided in the World Cup, asking Weghorst to lead your side to victory in an important international is akin to demanding someone win a sword fight armed only with an oversized wooden spoon. 

With the Netherlands ultimately losing 4-2 – ending an unbeaten 23-year run at De Kuip – and then shipping a further 3 goals in the 3rd place loss to Italy, the focus has been on the frailties of the Oranje defence. This is understandable considering it is their worst defensive run since 1962. 

However, it is at the other end of the pitch that Koeman has a more pressing issue. The conveyor belt of world-class Oranje centre forwards seems to have malfunctioned. How has it gotten to this?

Depay difficulties

This problem arguably wouldn’t exist at all if Koeman was able to use his most experienced forward, Memphis Depay. Now at Atlético Madrid following a difficult time with Barcelona, Depay has scored 44 goals for his country and should beat van Persie’s international record. The issue right now is that he has barely been playing.

Through a combination of injury and being overlooked at Barcelona, Depay did not get 90 minutes under his belt once last season and has only played 11 minutes of competitive football since mid-March. Worryingly, multiple muscular injuries were a big cause of this, issues that could be harder to physically resolve considering he turns 30 next year. In theory Depay would be ideal in a fluid front attacking unit with Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons, something Koeman would have wanted to start moulding together in this last international period. If Depay continues to struggle to get regular minutes, or not sufficiently overcome his injury problems, can Koeman really rely on him to lead the line in a major tournament?

Gakpo and Simons aren’t ready for a central role – yet 

Let’s be clear – Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons have the potential to be world-class. The fact Liverpool moved quickly to bring Gakpo in ahead of schedule and that PSG have been so keen to re-sign Simons is testimony to this. As are the 42 goals they scored between them last season, many of which were as a devastating partnership at PSV Eindhoven. 

Yet neither of them are natural centre forwards. At least not for now anyway. According to transfermarkt.com, Simons played as a striker only 5 times last season. For Gakpo that number is higher at 20, with Jürgen Klopp enjoying using his pace centrally, yet scoring only 6 goals from that role suggests it is still a work in progress. The former PSV captain covered for Depay in the World Cup and did well but, as was shown in the losses to Croatia and Italy, delivering against the higher-end teams at international level is a completely different kettle of fish. 

There is an argument that with few other options, and considering their talent, one of Simons or Gakpo should just be given the central striker berth. However, with such young stars it’s important for Koeman to let them continue to develop where they play best. If the Oranje is to be successful at Euro 2024, they need these two players to shine – they won’t do so if shoehorned into a role they’re not yet ready for. 

Heavy out wide, light in the middle

The aforementioned Gakpo and Simons represent the type of forward that is in vogue in modern football. A fast, skillful hybrid attacker that can flit across the line to exploit space, making goals as well as scoring them. Yet the majority of the best international teams still have an experienced central striker to link it all together. Even if as support to create space for the main acts out wide. 

The Netherlands has had players like that in recent years but none have ultimately been good enough. In addition to Weghorst, see the likes of Luuk de Jong and Vincent Janssen. On the flip side, they have an incredible depth of wide-attacking forwards and wingers, all of whom could compete to wear the famous orange shirt but none of whom are out-and-out strikers at this stage in their development. 

For example, last season Donyell Malen predominantly played on either wing at Borussia Dortmund and Noa Lang played most of his games – and scored most of his goals – for Club Brugge on the left. It is true that Arnaut Danjuma has experience down the middle but last season he was completely overlooked at Tottenham Hotspur and in his career to date he’s played three times as many matches as a left winger. You can copy and paste this argument for new Bournemouth signing Justin Kluivert – in 218 professional appearances, a mere five have been as a central striker. The Ajax attacker Steven Bergwijn has a decent international record but again he predominantly plays as a left winger cutting inside. After a challenging first season back in the Eredivisie, Bergwijn needs to regain his confidence in that familiar surrounding on the flank. At PSV, Guss Til could potentially do a job there but is not fancied by Koeman. 

The kids aren’t quite alright

Unfortunately, just when there is a genuine opening for an authentic young centre forward to step up, the pipeline from the Jong Oranje has slowed. The recent under-21 European Championships were a major disappointment. Not only did Erwin van de Looi’s squad fail to qualify from a group they should on paper have won but damningly they found the net only twice across three matches. 

One of those goals was from Brian Brobbey, who looks to have real potential if he can find some consistency at Ajax. Yet, as seen by some of his wayward finishing, he is some way off being the finished article and even further from deserving a starting spot for the senior side. Last season there was merited excitement about Thijs Dallinga after an electric first year with Toulouse, however, is he really ready to be the leading striker for Koeman? Beyond that, Joshua Zirkzee – once of Bayern Munich and now at Bologna – needs at least another season of regular first team football to be fairly judged, something that could also be said for Sydney van Hooijdonk, who was excellent in the last campaign on loan for Heerenveen but needs to find a new home where he can play before considering senior honours. Further afield Joël Piroe is thriving at Swansea City but doing well in a major international tournament is very different to doing so in the Championship.

Is it Depay or bust for Koeman? Does he risk negating Simons or Gakpo by taking them out of their best positions with the hope their talent will pull through? Or does he remove the shackles of conservatism that have to date defined him as a coach and place all of his chips on a young, unproven talent like Dallinga, Brobbey or Piroe? 

There is no obvious answer. The clock is ticking for Koeman to find one.




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Joe Baker (15 Posts)