Every week in the 2019/20 season, Football-Oranje’s Michael Statham gives you his predictions and betting tips for each Dutch Eredivisie round. Michael competes against a different special guest each week. This week, it’s Alex Dieker, who is a senior writer for Football Paradise.
Friday, 21st February
RKC Waalwijk v Sparta Rotterdam
Michael’s prediction: RKC probably need something similar to Eredivisie title-winning form to now escape relegation, such is the gap to safety. Sparta look a bit short in attack at the moment. Their midfielders have some good qualities but losing strikers Halil Dervisoglu and Lars Veldwijk over Winter, then Ragnar Ache to injury mean they’re short on pace and power to trouble defences (Patrick Joosten for now is deputising). 0-0 | Tip: Under 2.5 goals.
Alex’s prediction: RKC have done well this season at creating shots to the tune of 12.4 per game, but nearly half are from outside the box. Sides like Sparta, who take only 37% of their shots outside the box, are much better at converting chances into goals. That’s why Sparta beat RKC 4-0 in September, and why the last-place team will suffer a similar result on Friday. 0-3
Saturday, 22nd February
FC Emmen v Willem II
Michael’s prediction: Emmen are in decent form: only three defeats in ten. They’ll give Willem II a good game, and this is an important test to see whether Adrie Koster’s charges can continue their run to a top four finish, which is looking highly unlikely now given Feyenoord and PSV’s stronger performances. 2-1 | Tip: Emmen double chance.
Alex’s prediction: Adrie Koster’s Willem II are one of the most exciting teams to watch this season but have been slipping lately, with a loss to PSV and late goal to draw Utrecht. Koster will see a trip to Emmen as a great chance to get back on track. Emmen have shown some great persistence in recent weeks by drawing in Arnhem and beating Heracles and Twente, so they’ll have some momentum. This will be a close one. 1-2
Heerenveen v ADO Den Haag
Michael’s prediction: Alan Pardew has put his stamp on his ADO side; they’re playing a more English style of football in a 4-4-2 formation. However, they’re still very fragile, and I can’t see them frustrating Heerenveen for 90 minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised though if ADO loanee Omar Bogle caused some problems on the counter attack. 2-1 | Tip: Over 2.5 goals.
Alex’s prediction: The team who was kind enough to let AZ Alkmaar co-occupy their stadium for half the season has been too kind to their opponents on the pitch. ADO, besides a January win over Waalwijk, have not won since October. I don’t think they’ll win here, but it’s a matchup of two out-of-form sides. Heerenveen have lost four in six as well. 1-1
Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard – Delayed airing on Premier Sports 2
Michael’s prediction: Unless Feyenoord grow complacent from nine wins in a row, this should be a routine victory. Their win over PEC Zwolle was rocky, but in De Kuip the Rotterdammers can be unstoppable. 3-0 | Tip: Feyenoord -1.5 Asian handicap.
Alex’s prediction: Dick Advocaat has worked wonders in Rotterdam, most recently in a 4-3 win in stormy Zwolle. Now there’s talk of a second-place push, which isn’t out of the question now that AZ seem to be losing steam. I’ve not been particularly impressed with Fortuna and, although they look to be staying up, they’ll come out of De Kuip with nothing. 3-0
FC Groningen v VVV-Venlo
Michael’s prediction: Groningen have achieved four wins in six, whilst VVV are undefeated in five since the winter break. The visitors will set up to be difficult to beat but I fancy Daishawn Redan to break the deadlock in a home win. 2-0 | Tip: Redan to score.
Alex’s prediction: Groningen’s defeat of the Dutch champions last month showed how Danny Buijs can organize a strong defensive performance, but the visit of VVV means they’ll have to go on the attack themselves. Choosing a winner here is like splitting hairs. The lower the score, the better for the visitors. 1-1
Sunday, 23rd February
FC Utrecht v FC Twente
Michael’s prediction: Utrecht were rightly annoyed to be denied a win thanks to VAR in their draw with Willem II last time out – it was definitely a foul on Gustafson! Twente played a high-risk strategy to great effect in their win over AZ, changing from a 5-3-2 to a more positive 4-3-3. I doubt we’ll see the same kind of high pressing here from the Enschede side. 3-1 | Tip: Over 2.5 goals.
Alex’s prediction: Well, that was thrilling wasn’t it? Gonzalo Garcia’s Twente took their chances and beat AZ in Enschede, two-nil. Their fate was similar against Utrecht earlier in the season, beating the seventh placed side 3-1. Twente have performed decently away this season and Utrecht have tallied only 18 points in ten home matches. Everything points to a solid Twente performance, but don’t underestimate Jean-Christophe Bahebeck and Gyrano Kerk up top. 2-3
AZ Alkmaar v PEC Zwolle
Michael’s prediction: AZ’s season is on the verge of collapse. Playing a side sitting in sixteenth will be very difficult too; PEC Zwolle were snapping at Feyenoord’s heels in their 3-4 defeat last weekend, and carried a big threat on the counter-attack, Gustavo Hamer was particularly dangerous playing low crosses in for the strikers. A difficult one to call with AZ also reeling from a poor night in the Europa League. Will AZ slip up again? 2-2 | Tip: PEC Zwolle double chance.
Alex’s prediction: AZ didn’t show up to win in Enschede, while Zwolle gave one of the Eredivisie’s most in-form squads a run for their money. Arne Slot can’t afford to drop more points against Zwolle not only because Ajax are ready to run away with the league, but because Feyenoord are hot on their tail. 3-1
Vitesse Arnhem v PSV – Delayed airing on Premier Sports 2
Michael’s prediction: In recent years, Vitesse have loved playing the traditional top three at home. Despite PSV now boosted by back-to-back wins and a first away league win since September, I think Vitesse’s Bryan Linssen and Tim Matavz will create opportunities. PSV have positives though in their play: they’re keeping possession a lot better at the moment, Ryan Thomas has refound his touch now playing behind an improving Sam Lammers and Ricardo Rodriguez has been steady at left-back. 0-2 | Tip: Away win.
Alex’s prediction: PSV’s fall from grace has been quick and cruel. Without Bergwijn, this PSV squad is going to struggle to create chances against tight defenses. Back-to-back three-goal wins is a huge step towards a sustained run of good form, though, and I think they’ll beat Vitesse on Sunday. 0-2
Heracles Almelo v Ajax – Delayed airing on Premier Sports 2
Michael’s prediction: A few months ago, I would have been more excited for an excellent game in Almelo for the visit of Ajax. Even though we’ve seen Ajax slip up in Almelo in the past following a European night, I don’t think there’s the same fear factor about Heracles at the moment. On the other hand, this could be just the game Heracles need to reignite hopes of a top seven finish, against a frustrated Ajax from Thursday’s uninspiring loss to Getafe. I think Ajax will enjoy the relative space and freedom that the Eredivisie provides though. 1-3 | Tip: Over 2.5 goals.
Alex’s prediction: Ajax have to deal with Europa League midweek games and now, with a trip to Spain on Thursday, we will see how Erik ten Hag sets out his team with only a couple of rest days. Heracles have been a bogey team for the Champions in recent years but I don’t see them causing too much trouble, even with the late midweek fixture. 1-4
How has Michael done so far?
Week 1: 2 results + 5/9 correct betting tips | Lost versus Derby County goalkeeper Kelle Roos [6 results]
Week 2: 5 results + 3/9 betting tips | Lost versus Football Manager head researcher Jeroen Thijssen [5 results & 1 correct score]
Week 3: 4 results & 1 correct score + 5/9 betting tips | Won versus ED journalist and PSV-watcher Rik Elfrink [4 results]
Week 4: **2 results & 1 correct score + 4/6 betting tips | Lost versus ED journalist Chris Ottens [**3 results] **reduced schedule of only 6 matches
Week 5: 4 results + 6/9 betting tips | Won versus commentator Phil Blacker [3 results & 1 correct score]
Week 6: 6 results & 1 correct score + 7/9 betting tips | Lost versus EiF founder & journalist Marc Gerschwind [8 results & 2 correct scores]
Week 7: 5 results & 1 correct score + 5/9 betting tips | Won versus commentator Jonathan Beck [4 results]
Week 8: 5 results + 5/9 betting tips | Lost versus commentator Paul Thomas Clay [6 results & 1 correct score]
Week 9: 6 results & 1 correct score + 4/9 betting tips | Won versus “Eredivisie Out of Context’s” Yorin Schrader [5 results]
Week 10: 2 results + 2/9 betting tips | Lost versus Eredivisie scout Xander Wilkinson [3 results]
Week 11: 5 results and 1 correct score + 6/9 betting tips | Lost versus VVV-Venlo midfielder Lee Cattermole [6 results and 2 correct scores]
Week 12: 5 results and 1 correct score + 5/9 betting tips | Won versus football graphic designer Joeri Gosens [4 results and 1 correct score]
Week 13: 6 results + 6/9 betting tips | Won versus betting tipster MegaFootyTips [5 results and 1 correct score]
Week 14: 3 results and 1 correct score + 5/9 (+ one void) betting tips | Lost versus betting tipster Crypto [5 results and 3 correct scores]
Week 15: 5 results and 1 correct score + 5/9 betting tips | Won versus author Abdul Al Sayed [5 results]
Week 16: 5 results + 4/9 betting tips | Won versus tactical analyst Thom Bleijerveld [4 results and 1 correct score]
Week 17: 4 results and 1 correct score + 4/8 & 1 void betting tips | Lost versus Groningen podcaster Maarten Siepel [5 results and 1 correct score]
Week 18: 6 results and 2 correct scores + 6/9 betting tips | Won versus journalist Maarten Elst [4 results]
Week 19: 5 results and 3 correct score + 4/9 betting tips | Won versus commentator Richard Connelly [5 results]
Week 20: 4 results and 1 correct score + 4/9 betting tips | Won versus Utrecht podcast Red White Podcast [3 results]
Week 21: 7 results and 2 correct scores + 7/9 betting tips | Won versus Portuguese Dutch football outlet Espreme a Laranja [5 results]
Week 22: **4 results and 1 correct score + **2/7 betting tips | Won versus Football-Oranje founder Michael Bell [**2 results and 1 correct score] **reduced schedule of only seven matches
Week 23: 4 results and 2 correct scores + 7/9 betting tips | Lost versus commentator Paul Thomas Clay [5 results]
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Writer/interviewer/YouTuber for Football-Oranje. Massive Dutch football fan from the UK. Follow me @EredivisieMike & subscribe to Football-Oranje on YouTube.
